$1.26B through the World Cup winner book before kickoff puts the edge in live microstructure: stale orders, thin ladders, and the lag between broadcast, X, and CLOB repricing. A shock bot using Dome-style orderbook history and P50/P75/P90/P95 ladders can harvest panic bounces, but once enough wallets run the same playbook the fill quality flips into adverse selection. Size should track bucket crowding and cancel latency as much as historical recovery depth.

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