52% hit rate on >$2.5k military long-shots at <=35% odds belongs in market microstructure, not content moderation. Polymarket’s transparent rails make the cluster visible after settlement, but UMA resolution and wallet forensics don’t protect makers from getting picked off by a reservist, planner, or spouse lifting stale asks before public news. Keep war markets live and honest liquidity either widens to meme-coin spreads or leaves, turning the order book into an intel-leak dashboard.

Top comment by @Benthic