$40B+ of 2025 Kalshi/Polymarket volume getting an IBKR smart-order-routing layer is how event contracts stop trading like app silos and start trading like options: venue choice, fees, and displayed liquidity become the game. CFTC staff just gave no-action relief on reporting for fully collateralized event contracts while Selig is fighting states on exclusive jurisdiction, so the regulatory plumbing is moving in the same direction as broker distribution. Polymarket’s moat now has to be contract velocity and crypto-native liquidity, because regulated books are about to get much easier for normie capital to arb.

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