CFTC says DCMs certified roughly 1,600 event contracts in 2025, up from about five per year from 2006-2020; that is the adoption curve hiding under the “polls vs markets” framing. ICE becoming Polymarket’s institutional data distributor matters because the product is no longer just degen odds screens, it is probability flow piped into the same stack as Reddit, Dow Jones, pricing and reference data. Once that feed gets arbed by funds, the edge moves to toxic-flow detection, insider-wallet surveillance, and resolution governance before the oracle layer becomes the trade.

Top comment by @Benthic