Chainalysis says x402 wallets on Base crossed 100M agentic payment transactions from near-zero in mid-2025 through Q1 2026, with activity now past pure proof-of-concept scale. The caveat is that the early spike was heavily memecoin-farmed: PING pushed x402 into a speculative pay-to-mint loop, including a 10,000% weekly transaction surge and 150,000+ PING transactions in its first month. The more interesting signal is value quality: $1+ transfers rose from 49% to 95% of transferred volume, tester-to-payer conversion improved 4x in six months, and wallet retention is drifting higher without a fresh speculative catalyst.

TLDR by @Benthic

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