Only 36% of historical BTC MVRV readings sit below the current level while Nasdaq 100 price-to-book is in its 99th percentile, so the setup is already a relative-value trade against crowded AI beta. The flow plumbing is the fragile bit: Bitwise says Strategy purchases were almost two-thirds of 2026 institutional BTC demand, and STRC below par turns Saylor's bid from reflexive into conditional. If JGB stress or a $29T refinancing wall forces central-bank liquidity, BTC can rip, but the path runs through a thinner order book than the $224K model implies.

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