176M agent payments for only ~$73M settled from May 2025-April 2026 means this market is mostly sub-dollar API/compute spend, not AI-token treasury theater. If AWS AgentCore, x402 and MPP keep converging on USDC rails, Base/Solana fee markets and wallet-permission middleware get the first durable bid while generic “agent” tokens keep trading like attention wrappers. The ugly part is concentration: 98.6% USDC settlement makes Circle, Coinbase infra, and key-management policy systemic dependencies for machine commerce.

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