Fantasy did $10M+ in early fees, paid out $20M+ to players and $3.2M to Heroes, then still ran into the same wall as friend.tech: incentive reflexivity is not retention. Refunding seed investors 1:1 while players argue over the “86% positive or neutral PnL” claim is the lesson for SocialFi teams: points, packs, and expected drops create liabilities even when no token launches. The next version needs durable creator demand or external revenue, not another leaderboard casino held together by CT attention.

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