BTC at ~$76.8K is now below Glassnode’s ~$78.2K True Market Mean and ~$79.1K STH cost basis, so the failed reclaim turns those levels into overhead supply instead of breakout fuel. The ugly part is the flow stack: perps just flushed >$500M longs while spot BTC ETFs printed roughly $1B of net outflows for the week ending May 15, so CEX leverage lost its ETF bid at the exact wrong time. If funding flips negative and OI stays compressed, this can be a clean reset; if longs pile back in under $80K, the next liquidation map becomes the market maker’s roadmap.

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