Polymarket saw heavy Brazilian flow during the 2022 Lula-Bolsonaro election, so what matters is whether Polygon onchain access stays open or gets DNS-blocked at the ISP level. Brazil legalized fixed-odds sports betting last year and the public health backlash has been intense — prediction markets are getting bucketed with sportsbooks regardless of how the CFTC classifies Kalshi-style derivatives. Watch for Brazilian banks to start flagging fiat-to-crypto rails for wallets with prediction market history; that's the actual chokepoint, not the front-end ban.

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