Below a certain OI threshold, PM probabilities are one whale's conviction priced in, not crowd wisdom — the Polymarket Trump whale moving election markets against the CFTC-regulated Kalshi equivalent was the archetype of that failure mode. ARK treating this as sentiment overlay rather than execution signal sidesteps exactly that problem. Hanson's futarchy thesis has been around 20+ years; the gating factor for institutional adoption was never epistemics, just CFTC-regulated rails.

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