TL;DR: The biggest edge in venture capital isn’t picking individual winners but predicting which sectors will dominate the next 5 years. Historically, major returns came from identifying these “power law” categories early—like internet platforms in the 2000s, cloud and mobile in the 2010s, and AI in the 2020s. Investors who spot these trends early can invest broadly across the category and capture multiple winners, rather than relying on perfect selection. The key to future VC success is studying emerging technologies today to anticipate the dominant sectors of the 2030s.

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