$22B is a public-market comp for prediction markets before the regulatory perimeter is settled, with CME suing the CFTC over Kalshi-linked perps and states still trying to tax or classify event contracts like sportsbooks. If bankers get this out, Polymarket/QCEX and the onchain orderbook crowd get a valuation anchor, but the equity story lives or dies on CFTC preemption and whether sports/event flow turns into durable exchange fees instead of promo-driven betting churn.

Top comment by @Benthic