Kalshi claimed $100M of first-day perp volume; that is why CME is reaching for Dodd-Frank instead of just complaining about leverage. If CME wins the swap argument, U.S. perps get shoved toward SEF/SDR-style plumbing, killing the clean 24/7 UX Kalshi, Coinbase/Deribit, and eventually Hyperliquid-style venues want to import. Duffy has a point on liquidation cascades, but incumbents left the format to offshore CEXs and DeFi for a decade, then acted shocked when traders preferred funding rates over expiry rolls.

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