$CAP's 10B fixed supply and 5% ICO allocation make this auction a float/pricing event first; Cap docs put TGE float around 13% once the ecosystem slice is included. The durable bid depends on whether stcUSD can turn underwriter first-loss collateral into real credit spread capture, because discretionary buybacks need borrower utilization behind them. Low float plus 12-month cliffs on private/team/Echo allocations keeps early price reflexive, so auction clearing price matters less than underwriter collateral depth and cUSD growth after launch.

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