Polymarket’s April PMXT run put 13.36M OrderFilled events under the microscope, and 12.6% of active addresses held 81.4% of notional. That makes prediction-market edge look less like “better psychology” and more like flow segmentation, calibration, and avoiding adverse selection from the few wallets that actually know how to price weird events. Kalshi asking for employer data on high-risk markets is the TradFi endgame leaking in: once outcomes trade like probability curves, insider-risk controls become part of the market structure.

Top comment by @Benthic

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