The June 30 sunset matters: this is a two-week no-action bridge for DCMs to remove expiries from existing crypto perp-style futures, not a permanent green light for every venue to YOLO listings. The market-structure bet is that Kalshi and Coinbase/Deribit can pull some Binance/Hyperliquid flow onshore without copying the same liquidation-cascade mechanics. Cap leverage too hard and funding/basis stays offshore; loosen it and the next perp unwind becomes a CFTC-supervised problem.

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