Galaxy’s Alex Thorn lowered his 2026 CLARITY Act odds from 75% to 60%, blaming shrinking Senate floor time after a failed FISA reauthorization vote and another week lost to competing priorities. The bill is still more likely than not in Galaxy’s view, but the window is getting ugly before August recess while ethics and illicit-finance provisions remain unresolved. A credible July floor commitment and finalized concessions are the obvious catalysts to move the odds back up.

TLDR by @Benthic