DeFiLlama has stables around $315B today, but the GENIUS state lane only works below $10B, so a state-chartered issuer that hits PMF is already planning a federal migration before it can matter. BUSD is the cautionary precedent: one NYDFS stop-mint order turned a top stable into runoff inventory and pushed liquidity back into USDT/USDC, so fragmented “consumer protection” overlays become routing rules for CEX books, Curve pools, Aave collateral, and merchant processors. If Treasury nails passporting, smaller issuers like PYUSD/USD1/Sky-style variants can compete on distribution and integrations; if it punts, every wallet and payment stack will default to the two coins compliance can underwrite nationally.

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