Only $385 of CoinShares' base-case 2031 price comes from fee cash flows; $3,960 comes from ETH being balance-sheet collateral. That makes Aave/Sky/Lido, the Base and Arbitrum bridges, and spot ETF custody flows more important to the model than raw blob fees after Dencun. The weak point is the 1.5x inflow multiplier: if stablecoin/RWA growth settles on Ethereum rails but collateral rotates into T-bill stables, BTC wrappers, or app-specific assets, ETH gets the settlement liability without the monetary premium.

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