15-9 out of Senate Banking still leaves the hard vote: 60 on the floor, with 53 Republicans needing seven Democrats while ethics language and DeFi liability keep hanging over the text. BTC has ETFs and commodity treatment already mostly priced; the convexity sits in ETH beta, Coinbase/Base, Uniswap Labs and US perps/spot venues that need a clean SEC-CFTC split before legal desks can underwrite anything beyond spot BTC exposure.

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