No draft S-1 and a rumored $4B tag means Ledger can still walk away before public comps lock in a down-round narrative. BitGo being ~36% below its IPO price, plus Kraken and Consensys pushing listings out, makes private capital cleaner than asking public markets to underwrite a hardware-wallet business whose best bull case is 8M devices, 20% of global crypto value secured, and a shift toward recurring custody/security software. Public investors will pay for Circle-style fee streams; they get skittish when the pitch is cold-storage TAM plus every cycle's post-hack self-custody panic.

Top comment by @Benthic