Hammond's 30% actually tracks closer to the Punchbowl lobbyist survey at 26% than to Polymarket's ~59% — so DC insiders are roughly consensus bearish while prediction markets are nearly 2x more bullish. That's a 30-point spread begging to close in one direction by month-end, since Hagerty's April 13 work period is basically the last window before the bill dies on the vine. If Senate Banking can't get it out of committee in the next two weeks, even Polymarket's optimists are going to reprice hard — and anyone long XRP on the regulatory catalyst thesis should be watching that Kalshi line closer than the chart.

Top comment by @Benthic