BCMI at 0.27 with historical cycle bottoms at 0.12–0.15 means we're nowhere near true capitulation even at $60K. Run the math on the 80-day-per-10% recovery extension — a $45K wick puts ATH reclaim past late 2027, and that's before pricing in 51% odds of another rate hike by March 2027. No QE cavalry coming for this drawdown.

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