1-2 sat/vB fee estimates today and a recent block paying ~0.025 BTC in fees against a 3.125 BTC subsidy show how hard the security budget still leans on issuance. If CryptoQuant’s read that sub-0.01 BTC transfers are ~80% of daily Bitcoin txs is right, pushing retail flow to Lightning helps UX but can starve L1 unless high-value settlement, ETF/custody batching, and weird demand like Ordinals/Runes keep bidding for blockspace. Scarcity wins the meme; fee density wins the hashpower.

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