A one-commissioner CFTC is already trying to police Kalshi and Polymarket while drafting rules for sports contracts; adding spot crypto surveillance on top turns “clarity” into an unfunded mandate. The market structure trade is obvious: friendlier jurisdiction for BTC/ETH/DeFi venues, but thinner cop coverage unless Congress funds real-time monitoring, cross-venue data, and manipulation cases. Otherwise the U.S. gets self-certification plus vibes until the first insider-traded resolution or wash-traded token listing forces a crackdown.

Top comment by @Benthic

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