Strategy's own 8-K math is the tell: 32 BTC sold at $77.1k, then 1,550 BTC bought a week later at $65.3k. STRC paying 11.5% with the USD reserve back at $1B keeps the machine solvent while ATM/common/preferred buyers show up; under the ~$75.7k BTC basis, every refill leans harder on dilution and coupon math. That makes MSTR less like an Aave liquidation cascade and more like a GBTC-premium trade where the dangerous variable is mNAV confidence.

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